Prior to the pandemic student enrolments in higher education were predicted to reach 262 million by 2025. Over half of the growth was expected to be in China and India, with eight million students looking to study abroad (Maslen, 2012). Previous student number caps were removed in 2015 (HEPI, 2018) meaning; institutions were only limited by the physical space on campus. The only way possible to meet that demand would be by providing online learning opportunities, yet not all institutions are geared up to deliver high quality online learning (Batty and Hall, 2020).
In addition to the previous expectations of higher demand over the next 5 years, there is already a large financial reliance on international student fees especially from China. In 2019 the number of Chinese students arriving to study in the UK stood at approximately 90,000, a fourfold increase from 2016 (Dolton, 2020). This reliance on students from China has exposed us to a large financial risk. There are growing fears about the impact of Covid-19 on Higher Education in the UK and the unknown impact on student numbers for the academic year 2020/21 due to issues with English language tests, delayed results, visa processing delays, travel bans and confidence in travel, especially to the UK, as the UK were late to introduce lockdown measures, (Jack and Smyth, 2020). There are concerns over whether universities will survive what is being marked as the largest recession on record (BBC, 2020) and 30-50 institutions are flagged at risk of insolvency (London Economics, 2020; Dolton, 2020). The British Council (2020) reports that 39% of students surveyed reported they are unsure about their study plans with an additional 22% suggesting they might cancel their current plans. Although restrictions are starting to ease there is no final timeline as to when travel bans and social distancing measures on large groups will be eased. Any promises being made by institutions of a return to campus in the short term seem unrealistic to say the least.
Education providers have had to find a way to continue to deliver education without the face-to-face component and a variety of technologies, largely a mixture of Virtual Learning Environments (VLEs) and Virtual Classrooms or video-conferencing systems, have filled that stop-gap. Covid-19 has accelerated technology adoptions in education (Jack and Smyth, 2020), Wired, 2020) and has been the “jolt to the system” (Wired, 2020) that has forced technology adoption in education and is expected to have profound impact on delivery models and user behaviour.(Jain, 2020).
Jolt to the system
Wired, 2020.
In terms of Rogers Diffusion of Innovation (DOI) Theory (Rogers, 2003) the pandemic has sped up the innovation adoption lifecycle so those “late majority” and “laggards” that would in ‘normal’ circumstances never have trialled technologies like virtual classrooms have now been exposed to the technologies and in terms of the Gartner Hype Cycle (Gartner, 2018) we should see a move into a “plateau of productivity” where mainstream adoption occurs as illustrated in Figure 18.
After such unprecedented disruption a new normal should emerge, where we will all be expected to work and learn in different ways (Wired, 2020). There is speculation about what that new normal should be for education. Will we see an increase in MOOCS and unbundled education? (Jack and Smyth, 2020; Lohr, 2020). Will we see a shift to an increased hybrid delivery model or will things return to the traditional ‘bricks and mortar’ model? Will universities “lose their autonomy to state control?” (Times Higher Education, 2020). There is no definite answer, but what we do know for sure is that institutions in the short term will need delivery plans for this pandemic alongside readiness for future pandemics. They willneed to invest in the professional development of their staff and ensure their staff and students have the digital capabilities required to study and work in different ways (DeVaney et al., 2020, no pagination; Hollinshead, 2020). Digital transformation strategies need to be formulated and funded to meet any potential growing demand and to mitigate risk. (DeVaney et al., 2020, no pagination; Myles, 2020).
Institutions are trying to plan in an ever-changing environment, with Universities announcing plans from week to week and most opting for hybrid models of delivery. Lectures are moved online and plans to have smaller, socially distanced classes on campus are planned especially where access to specialist equipment or facilities are required. There are “predictions it (online learning) could kill off traditional lectures forever.” (Hazell, 2020). For most institutions there will only be pockets of innovators who are used to delivering in a blended or hybrid delivery mode or using flipped learning pedagogies. An institutional-wide approach at scale is not commonplace and something which would normally take years of planning. Most institutions don’t have the resource or the infrastructure. It is not possible to re-design an entire University portfolio, shifting the mode to hybrid or fully online delivery in a short time frame, on limited budget, in the way institutions are accustomed to. Institutions need to consider tactically where they need to focus expertise and a way to support the masses to ensure a baseline quality for delivery of education in an online or hybrid modality (Morris, 2020; Mosley, 2020) and move away from Phase 1 Rapid transition into the next phases (Hill and Moore, 2020) Figure 19. Failure to do so will leave students experience of online learning held hostage by their educators’ digital capabilities.
Technology Adoption in HE 